Analysts Expect August Vehicle Sales to Reach Almost the Same Level as in July
Automakers will release August vehicle sales next Wednesday (September 4th) and currently, analysts estimate August sales to reach almost the same level as in July (15.73 million seasonally adjusted and annualized).
Here are some forecasts from specialists:
Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,455,911 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million. The projected sales will be a 10.9 percent increase from July 2013, and a 13.3 percent increase from August 2012.
“Car buyers are continuing their steady march into car dealerships and they’ll keep marching right through Labor Day weekend with attractive deals and promotions luring them in,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs. “While retail sales are strong in August, automakers are further reducing their dependence on fleet sales. This month’s fleet percentage of total sales looks to be the lowest since at least 2007, and the result will be stronger resale values for customers buying new cars and healthier bottom lines for automakers.”
For August 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,464,214 units, up 14.4 percent from August 2012 and up 11.8% percent from July 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).
The August 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.75 million new car sales, down less than one percent from July 2013 and up nine percent over August 2012.
“New vehicle sales defied their typical strong correlation with Wall Street in August and continued to post a healthy increase despite the lackluster performance in financial markets,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. “Small SUVs became the fastest growing segment this month, with this very functional and affordable vehicle category now making up 15.5% of all sales, up from 13.5% from a year ago.”
With consistency in the fleet environment, total light-vehicle sales in August 2013 are also expected to increase by 12 percent from August 2012 to 1,495,400. Fleet sales are expected to account for 15 percent of total sales, with volume of 225,000 units.
PIN and LMC data show total sales reaching a 16 million unit SAAR in August, which is the highest since November 2007, with actual unit sales the highest since May 2007.
New-vehicle sales continue the hot streak that has been trending throughout the summer selling season, with no evidence of the pace slowing, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by the Power Information Network(R) (PIN) from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.
“The industry as a whole continues to experience a robust improvement in demand, and our forecast for August is looking to be the best month for retail sales that we’ve seen in the past seven years,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. “Moreover, this strong selling environment is occurring when consumers are spending more on new vehicles than any month on record, which is a further indication of the underlying strength of the sector.”
The U.S. light-vehicle daily sales rate in August should remain nearly flat with July’s DSR, but with three extra selling days monthly sales should rise to nearly 1.47 million units, a new WardsAuto forecast predicts
The resulting 15.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate would match the July SAAR but fall short of June’s 67-month high of 15.8 million units.
Market conditions are relatively unchanged from July, with robust consumer demand capped by tight inventories and overall sales dampened somewhat by below-trend fleet orders.
New-vehicle sales are expected improve 13.6 percent in August 2013 to a total of 1.46 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for August 2013 is estimated to be 15.6 million, up from 14.5 million in August 2012 and down from 15.8 million in July 2013.
“Most automakers are seeing double-digit sales increases compared to last year as retail sales remain a bright spot, even with more new models entering the market,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Subaru continues to shine, estimated to be up 30 percent this month even with capacity constraints, and Honda once again has one of the strongest year-over-year growths. On the other hand, Ford could have been up double digits, but has been hampered with production issues from both the Escape and Fusion.”