And The Losers Are… “The Republicans”
All the polls published since almost one week show that the Republican Party has been badly damaged by the government shutdown and debt limit standoff so that the House of Representatives is increasingly vulnerable to a Democratic takeover in 2014.
***On October 7, the Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that the disapproval of congressional Republicans’ budget has shot up to 70 percent, with 51 percent disapproving “strongly”:
Disapproval of congressional Republicans’ budget wrangling after a weeklong shutdown has shot up to 70 percent, with 51 percent disapproving “strongly,” according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
At the same time, President Obama’s approval rating has ticked up due to improved marks among moderate Democrats and independents. No group, however, earns positive marks for their handling of budget negotiations overall.
***On October 9, according to the Gallup Survey, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992:
With the Republican-controlled House of Representatives engaged in a tense, government-shuttering budgetary standoff against a Democratic president and Senate, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, down from 38% in September. This is the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992.
More than six in 10 Americans (62%) now view the GOP unfavorably, a record high. By comparison, nearly half of Americans (49%) view the Democratic Party unfavorably. Roughly one in four Americans see both parties unfavorably.
***On October 10, the NBC/WSJ poll demonstrated that Shutdown debate strongly damaged the Republican party:
By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96.
Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll.
***On October 11, poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, found that voters blame the GOP more than Democrats for the shutdown:
By a 16-point margin, 43 to 27 percent, voters blame the Republican in Congress, rather than President Obama and the Democrats, for the government shutdown.
The shutdown had left an already damaged GOP brand in tatters and the party’s electoral prospects wounded. The party now has a 2:1 unfavorable to favorable rating, 26 percent favorable vs. 52 percent unfavorable (for a net -26 rating). Among independents their rating is -35. Democrats don’t fare great either, but with a net -5 rating (39 percent favorable vs. 44 percent unfavorable), they do much better. Perhaps most important, on the generic ballot, Democrats now lead by double digits, 46 to 36 percent.
In this context, I believe that the Republicans should quickly accept the last proposal of Senate Majority Leader Reid that would involve raising the debt ceiling into 2014, opening the Govt into December and agreeing to open framework for budget negotiations.