Pending Home Sales Should Be Higher than Expected

The NAR is scheduled to report May pending home sales today and the consensus is expecting a rise of 1% MoM from April:


Yet, according to my friend, Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities and also the best forecaster of US statistics since November, pending home sales should increase by 5.5% MoM in May:


Regarding this index which helps to forecast existing home sales, 30 to 45 days in advance, I anticipate a sharp increase. According to my estimate, in order for the pending home sales in adjusted value to be stable from April to May, raw data should increase 8.0% YoY. Nevertheless, local data that I gathered show a rise of 13.9%. Indeed, even if pending home sales decreased in some areas like in Arizona (-13.6%), they increased in other places like in New York (24.2%). After seasonal adjustment, pending home sales should increase by 5.5% MoM.


This forecast is coherent with articles which show strong pending home sales in some regions:
- Massachusets (all time high)
- Twin Cities (8-year high)

- Washington (3-year high)


As I said before, one of the main explanation of this surge could be the rebound in inventory.