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US Vehicle Sales Should Remain Over 17 Million SAAR in August

Automakers will release August vehicle sales next Tuesday (September 1st) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to remain above 17 million.

 

Here are some forecasts from several specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Stock Market Fluctuations Don’t Slow August Car Sales, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,538,958 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.4 million. The projected sales will be a 2.1 percent increase from July 2015, but a 2.8 percent decrease from August 2014.
 
“Sales momentum in August has been strong despite recent stock market fluctuations,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The fact that we will likely see a year-over-year decline in sales isn’t a troubling sign because last August was a monster month that included Labor Day weekend.”

 

2/ Wards: Forecast: LV SAAR Should Hold Steady in August

 

A new WardsAuto forecast calls for strong U.S. light-vehicle sales in August, extending a streak of light-vehicle SAARs that round to at least 17 million units. The report calls for automakers to sell 1.53 million LVs in the U.S. this month, for a daily sales rate of 58,866 units (over 26 days), a 0.7% improvement over same-month year-ago (27 days).

 

 

3/ Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Drop 4 Percent In August 2015, According To Kelley Blue Book

 

New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.52 million units in August 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
 
“While the outlook for August remains bright, we must keep an eye on the financial markets which have declined precipitously in the last few weeks on uncertainty in international markets, namely China,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.
 
“We remain confident that sales in August will remain robust; however, should the U.S. financial markets continue to falter, we could see demand for new cars soften in the short to medium term. It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the U.S. remains below 6 percent, while the auto finance environment remains as attractive as ever, so we don’t necessarily expect to see the sales pace deviate from its current 17 million-plus SAAR trajectory for 2015 unless the stock market continues its downward trajectory in the weeks and months to come.”

 

4/ J.D. Power and LMC Automotive: Industry Strength Continues in August, Full-Month Volume Impacted by Calendar

 

“On a year-over-year basis, August sales are going to appear weak, when in fact it’s really a variance in the numbers created by the calendar,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.“There certainly is no cause for alarm. In fact, the daily selling rate month-to-date in August is trending 8 percent higher than the same period a year ago, although we do anticipate the absence of the holiday in August sales will diminish that rate by the end of the month.
 
“Our expectation is that with Labor Day falling in September, sales that would have occurred this month are being pushed into next month. If that happens, September will move sales back to the strong trend line we’ve been seeing throughout the year.”

May US Auto Sales Should Rebound Significantly

Automakers will release May vehicle sales next Tuesday (June 2nd) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to rebound sharply from April. Because there was a full week of May after the Memorial Day weekend this year, shoppers had plenty of time to take advantage of the deals being widely communicated in dealer and automaker marketing messages.

 

Here are some forecasts from several specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Nearly 1.6 Million New Cars Sold in May Push Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) to Impressive 17.4 Million, says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,591,221 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in May for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.4 million. The projected sales will be a 9.6 percent increase from April 2015, and a 0.9 percent decrease from May 2014.

“The industry continued on its upward trajectory, helped by the timing of Memorial Day,” stated Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Because there was a full week of May after the holiday weekend, shoppers had plenty of time to take advantage of the deals being widely communicated in dealer and automaker marketing messages.”

 

2/ JD Power-LMC Automotive: New-Vehicle Retail Sales SAAR in May to Hit 14.1M Units, Highest Level So Far in 2015

 

Total light-vehicle sales in May 2015 are projected to reach 1,591,100, a 3 percent increase on a selling day adjusted basis compared with May 2014.

The combination of strong sales and high transaction prices positions May to set a new record for the month for consumer spending on new vehicles at approximately $39.6 billion, according to the Power Information Network (PIN) from J.D. Power. It would become the third-highest level of new-vehicle consumer spending in a month following August 2014 ($40.3 billion) and July 2005 ($39.7 billion).

 

3/ Wards: Forecast: SAAR Could Reach 17.5 Million in May

 

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.6 million light vehicles this month. The forecasted daily sales rate of 61,601 over 26 days represents a 3.9% improvement from like-2014 (27 days), while total volume for the month would be flat with year-ago. If deliveries meet or exceed WardsAuto’s forecast, May will be the 15th consecutive month to outpace prior-year comparisons.

 

4/ Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales to Reach 17.3 Million SAAR in May 2015

 

New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 1 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.59 million units in May 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

“May sales will reach the highest total year-to-date, and could remain the highest until December of this year,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “While we expect an overall decline in volume versus last year, the difference is the result of one fewer sales day from May 2014, and total SAAR will reflect year-over-year improvement. May typically is a strong sales month, as consumers take advantage of warmer weather and advertised deals for the extended Memorial Day sales weekend.”

 

5/ TrueCar: TrueCar projects May retail auto sales to expand 2.4% following robust holiday weekend demand

 

“TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the negotiation-free car buying and selling mobile marketplace, projects retail auto sales to consumers will rise 2.4% percent in May from a year ago, buoyed by strong Memorial Day weekend demand. Total volume may fall slightly on lower fleet deliveries, yet the retail uptick indicates sustained industry health.

New vehicle sales, including those to daily rental and commercial fleets, may dip 0.9 percent to 1,594,700 units this month from 1,608,693 a year ago. Deliveries may increase 2.9 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, adjusting for one less selling day compared to May 2014. Sales during the Memorial Day weekend, typically the peak buying period of the second quarter, were up 7 percent from a year ago, based on a TrueCar analysis. Automakers’ holiday promotions remain in effect through June 1, owing to an unusually early Memorial Day weekend this year.”

 

Specialists Expect US Vehicle Sales to Fall Significantly in September

Automakers will release September vehicle sales next Tuesday (October 1st) and currently, analysts estimate sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to fall significantly from August.

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in September, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com predicts that 1,143,968 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million. The projected sales will be a 23.8 percent decrease from August 2013, and a 3.7 percent decrease from September 2012.
 
“It looks like sales took a big hit in September, but the monthly SAAR is up year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it did last year,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Many of the fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close out 2013.”

 

2/ TrueCar: September 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Down 4.4 Percent According to TrueCar; September 2013 SAAR at 15.4M

 

For September 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,131,333 units, down 4.4 percent from September 2012 and also down 24.5% percent from August 2013 (on an unadjusted basis – September 2013 had 23 sales days, compared to 25 in September 2012).
 
The September 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.4 million new car sales, down about four percent from August 2013 and up about four percent over September 2012.
 
“Labor Day sales clearly pulled ahead from September volume and resulted in a lackluster month. The uncertainty in the financial markets also finally caught up with auto sales, causing some hesitation for big ticket item purchases,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com.

 

3/ JD Power-LMC Automotive: JD Power-LMC Automotive say brisk US auto sales pace slowing
 

JD Power and LMC Automotive said “the new vehicle sales pace in September has slowed from its sprint in recent months,” and sees the month’s annualized selling rate at 15.2 million vehicles.
 
August’s annualized sales rate was 16.1 million vehicles.

 

4/ Wards: Q3 Strong Despite Expected September Sales Drop
 

U.S. automakers should sell 1.14 million light vehicles in September, according to a new WardsAuto forecast. Pull-ahead sales from the Labor Day weekend, counted in the August sales report, are a large factor in the forecast, which calls for the monthly SAAR to fall to 15.3 million units just a month after breaking the 16 million-unit mark.

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: September Auto Sales Expected To Dip 2 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book
 

In September 2013, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,167,000 units, down 1.8 percent from September 2012 and down 22.2 percent from August 2013.
 
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September 2013 is estimated to be 15.7 million, up from 14.7 million in September 2012 and down from 16.0 million in August 2013.
 
“September 2013 new-vehicle sales represent the first year-over-year drop since May 2011, due to slower retail sales, two fewer sales days in the month, and this year’s Labor Day sales included in August 2013 totals,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Despite the cool down this month, Kelley Blue Book forecasts sales will remain on track to exceed 15.6 million units in 2013 because of strong product introductions from automakers.”

 
My view
 
According to the specialists, new auto sales could fall significantly (5% in the worst case) in September. It means that personal consumption expenditures should be under pressure and its contribution to GDP would be less than expected in Q3. As a consequence, the Federal Reserve will not be obliged to start “tapering” at the end of October.

July Auto Sales Should Be Slightly Below June’s Level

Automakers will release July vehicle sales next Wednesday (August 2) and currently, analysts estimate July sales to be slightly below previous month level (15.89 million seasonally adjusted and annualized).

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/Edmunds: Retail Market Drives Strongest July Car Sales Since 2006, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,328,397 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in July for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.8 million. The projected sales will be a 5.3 percent decrease from June 2013, but a 15.2 percent increase from July 2012. Edmunds.com anticipates that this month will be the biggest July performance since 2006 when automakers sold 1,489,359 vehicles.
 
“Overall sales are undoubtedly strong, but what makes July truly impressive is that fleet sales are so low,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “That means retail sales are stepping up as the driving force for the auto industry. When people jump back into the market, it’s great news not just for the automotive sector, but for the entire U.S. economy.”

 

2/TrueCar: July 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up 15.3 Percent According to TrueCar; July 2013 SAAR at 15.8M, Highest July SAAR since 2006

 

For July 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,326,035 units, up 15.3 percent from July 2012 and down 5.1% percent from June 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).
 
The July 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.8 million new car sales, up from 15.9 million in June 2013 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012.
 
“Value conscious buyers are devouring the compact segment inventories while the recovering housing sector is fueling the small business purchases of large trucks,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com.
 
“July delivered the highest year-over-year increase so far in 2013,” said Toprak. “Consumer demand for new vehicles remained healthy, with small cars/SUVs and large trucks outperforming the industry sales rate.
 

 

3/ JD Power: July New-Vehicle Retail Sales — Let the Good Times Roll
 

Total light-vehicle sales in July 2013 are expected to grow to 1,336,700, an 11 percent increase from July 2012. Fleet sales, which typically average between 15 and 16 percent of total sales in July, are expected to fall within the lower end of the average, with volume projected at 209,600 units.
 
“The overall trend in vehicle demand has outshined economic growth, and looking forward, the improving economic fundamentals should hold demand at the current level, if not accelerate it over the next several months,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. “With a strong tailwind, it is not unreasonable to think about a 16-million-unit level of demand in 2013.”

 

4/ Wards: Fleet Orders, Low Stocks Temper July U.S. Sales Forecast
 

Diminished inventories and a decline in fleet orders likely will keep U.S. auto makers from equaling last month’s 67-month-high light-vehicle seasonally adjusted annual sales rate, according to a new WardsAuto forecast.
 
The data report calls for 1.31 million LV deliveries in July, equivalent to a 52,401-unit daily selling rate over 25 selling days. That’s a 9.4% improvement on year-ago (24 days), but a 2.6% decline from June’s DSR (26 days).
 
The resulting 15.6 million SAAR also would fall shy of June’s 15.9 million.

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: Pickup Trucks, Compact Cars And Crossovers Drive July New-Car Sales Up 16 Percent
 

In July 2013, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to be 1,340,000 units, up 16.1 percent from July 2012 and down 4.4 percent from June 2013.
 
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for July 2013 is estimated to be 15.8 million, up from 14.0 million in July 2012 and down from 15.9 million in June 2013.
 
“As new-car demand continues to improve with leases accounting for nearly 25 percent of all new-car sales, along with continued solid truck sales, we’ve improved our forecast for 2013 to 15.6 million units,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Consumer confidence has a played a key role in the ongoing recovery and currently is at the highest levels seen since January 2008. With modest improvements in unemployment and housing expected to continue through the rest of the year, confidence likely will follow suit, driving new-car demand along with it.”