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US Vehicle Sales Should Remain Over 17 Million SAAR in August

Automakers will release August vehicle sales next Tuesday (September 1st) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to remain above 17 million.

 

Here are some forecasts from several specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Stock Market Fluctuations Don’t Slow August Car Sales, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,538,958 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.4 million. The projected sales will be a 2.1 percent increase from July 2015, but a 2.8 percent decrease from August 2014.
 
“Sales momentum in August has been strong despite recent stock market fluctuations,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The fact that we will likely see a year-over-year decline in sales isn’t a troubling sign because last August was a monster month that included Labor Day weekend.”

 

2/ Wards: Forecast: LV SAAR Should Hold Steady in August

 

A new WardsAuto forecast calls for strong U.S. light-vehicle sales in August, extending a streak of light-vehicle SAARs that round to at least 17 million units. The report calls for automakers to sell 1.53 million LVs in the U.S. this month, for a daily sales rate of 58,866 units (over 26 days), a 0.7% improvement over same-month year-ago (27 days).

 

 

3/ Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Drop 4 Percent In August 2015, According To Kelley Blue Book

 

New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.52 million units in August 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
 
“While the outlook for August remains bright, we must keep an eye on the financial markets which have declined precipitously in the last few weeks on uncertainty in international markets, namely China,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.
 
“We remain confident that sales in August will remain robust; however, should the U.S. financial markets continue to falter, we could see demand for new cars soften in the short to medium term. It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the U.S. remains below 6 percent, while the auto finance environment remains as attractive as ever, so we don’t necessarily expect to see the sales pace deviate from its current 17 million-plus SAAR trajectory for 2015 unless the stock market continues its downward trajectory in the weeks and months to come.”

 

4/ J.D. Power and LMC Automotive: Industry Strength Continues in August, Full-Month Volume Impacted by Calendar

 

“On a year-over-year basis, August sales are going to appear weak, when in fact it’s really a variance in the numbers created by the calendar,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.“There certainly is no cause for alarm. In fact, the daily selling rate month-to-date in August is trending 8 percent higher than the same period a year ago, although we do anticipate the absence of the holiday in August sales will diminish that rate by the end of the month.
 
“Our expectation is that with Labor Day falling in September, sales that would have occurred this month are being pushed into next month. If that happens, September will move sales back to the strong trend line we’ve been seeing throughout the year.”

Specialists Expect US Vehicle Sales to Fall Significantly in September

Automakers will release September vehicle sales next Tuesday (October 1st) and currently, analysts estimate sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to fall significantly from August.

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in September, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com predicts that 1,143,968 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million. The projected sales will be a 23.8 percent decrease from August 2013, and a 3.7 percent decrease from September 2012.
 
“It looks like sales took a big hit in September, but the monthly SAAR is up year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it did last year,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Many of the fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close out 2013.”

 

2/ TrueCar: September 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Down 4.4 Percent According to TrueCar; September 2013 SAAR at 15.4M

 

For September 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,131,333 units, down 4.4 percent from September 2012 and also down 24.5% percent from August 2013 (on an unadjusted basis – September 2013 had 23 sales days, compared to 25 in September 2012).
 
The September 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.4 million new car sales, down about four percent from August 2013 and up about four percent over September 2012.
 
“Labor Day sales clearly pulled ahead from September volume and resulted in a lackluster month. The uncertainty in the financial markets also finally caught up with auto sales, causing some hesitation for big ticket item purchases,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com.

 

3/ JD Power-LMC Automotive: JD Power-LMC Automotive say brisk US auto sales pace slowing
 

JD Power and LMC Automotive said “the new vehicle sales pace in September has slowed from its sprint in recent months,” and sees the month’s annualized selling rate at 15.2 million vehicles.
 
August’s annualized sales rate was 16.1 million vehicles.

 

4/ Wards: Q3 Strong Despite Expected September Sales Drop
 

U.S. automakers should sell 1.14 million light vehicles in September, according to a new WardsAuto forecast. Pull-ahead sales from the Labor Day weekend, counted in the August sales report, are a large factor in the forecast, which calls for the monthly SAAR to fall to 15.3 million units just a month after breaking the 16 million-unit mark.

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: September Auto Sales Expected To Dip 2 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book
 

In September 2013, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,167,000 units, down 1.8 percent from September 2012 and down 22.2 percent from August 2013.
 
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September 2013 is estimated to be 15.7 million, up from 14.7 million in September 2012 and down from 16.0 million in August 2013.
 
“September 2013 new-vehicle sales represent the first year-over-year drop since May 2011, due to slower retail sales, two fewer sales days in the month, and this year’s Labor Day sales included in August 2013 totals,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Despite the cool down this month, Kelley Blue Book forecasts sales will remain on track to exceed 15.6 million units in 2013 because of strong product introductions from automakers.”

 
My view
 
According to the specialists, new auto sales could fall significantly (5% in the worst case) in September. It means that personal consumption expenditures should be under pressure and its contribution to GDP would be less than expected in Q3. As a consequence, the Federal Reserve will not be obliged to start “tapering” at the end of October.

US Total Vehicle Sales Should Be at or Above 15 million SAAR in May

Automakers will release May vehicle sales next Monday (June 3) and currently, analysts estimate May sales to be at or above 15 million (seasonally adjusted and annualized). It will represent an increase compared to April when sales slowed to their lowest monthly pace (14.92 million) since last autumn.

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Car Sales Expected to Get Back on Track in May, Says Edmunds.com

 

“Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,420,937 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in May for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.1 million light vehicles. The projected sales will be a 10.6 percent increase from April 2013 and a 6.5 percent increase from May 2012.” … “May sales quickly chased away any of last month’s concerns that the auto recovery is stalling”

 

2/ TrueCar: May 2013 New Car Sles Expected to Be Up Almost Nince Percent Accordiing to TrueCar; May 2013 SAAR at 15.2M, Highest May SAAR since 2007

 

“For May 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,435,495 units, up 8.5 percent from May 2012 and up 12.1 percent from April 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).” … “The May 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.2 million new car sales, up from 14.9 April 2013 and up from 13.9 million in May 2012.”

 

3/ JD Power: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: May New-Vehicle Retail Selling Rate Expected to be 1 Million Units Stronger than a Year Ago

 

“Robust new-vehicle retail sales in May are the driving factor of returning total sales above the 15-million unit selling level for the month, according to a monthly sales forecast developed by J.D. Power & Associates’ Power Information Network”

 

4/ Wards: May Sales Should Return to Trend

 

“Steadily improving economic factors, including rising consumer confidence, should help boost May U.S. light-vehicle deliveries back to the current 6-month sales rate after an April dip in the seasonally adjusted annual rate, a new WardsAuto forecast says.” … “U.S. auto makers are expected to sell 1.43 million cars and light trucks in the month, equivalent to a 55,127-unit daily rate over 26 selling days, a 7.8% improvement from year-ago that also had 26 days.”

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: New-car Sales To Improve 6 Percent In May With Help From Memorial Day Weekend Sale Events

 

“New-car sales will hit 15.0 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in May, which is an expected 6 percent year-over-year improvement, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information.”

 

This rebound in sales is coherent with some articles which underlined that U.S. automakers accelerated production lines and, in some cases, even canceled the North American industry’s traditional summer factory shutdowns to meet strong demand.
 
As a consequence, in May, we can expect:
 
1/ an increase of industrial production
2/ a rebound of retail sales
3/ some hiring in the auto sector