The NAR is scheduled to report September existing home sales on Monday and the Bloomberg consensus is expecting 5.30 million units down 3.3% from August.
Yet, according to my friend, Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities and also the best forecaster of US statistics since November 2012, existing home sales should fall significantly in September:
According to my estimate, in order for the sales in adjusted value to be stable from August to September, that is to stay at 5 480K – raw data should rise 17.5% from September 2012 to September 2013. Nevertheless, local data that I gathered show a rise of 12.6%. Indeed, even if existing home rose in some regions like in North Texas (22.4%), they fell in some areas like in Arizona (-6.6%) or Las Vegas (-1.2%). Finally, we get a seasonally adjusted statistics of 5 250 K which represents a 4.2% drop MoM.
This forecast is coherent with articles which show that, in several regions, sales YoY were far below the +17.5% threshold needed to stabilize sales in September:
- Albuquerque (+7.9% YoY)
- Twin Cities (+14.5% YoY)
- California (+5.9% YoY)