Free songs

JD Power

Specialists Expect US Vehicle Sales to Rebound in October

Automakers will release October vehicle sales next Friday (November 1st) and currently, analysts estimate sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to rebound from September.

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: October Auto Sales Keep Pace Despite Threat from Government Shutdown, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.
 
“It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry’s momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington.”

 

2/ JD Power-LMC Automotive: Government Shutdown Curbs New-Vehicle Sales on East Coastg
 

Although the 16-day partial U.S. government shutdown curtailed new-vehicle sales in the first half of October, demand picked up during the third week, according to a monthly auto sales forecast update from J.D. Power and partner LMC Automotive. Total new-vehicle sales in October 2013 are expected to increase 8% from October 2012, when selling-day adjusted.
 
October sales are projected to reach nearly 1.22 million units, up from 1.09 million unit sales in the same month of 2012. That’s equal to a 15.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual selling rate, or SAAR, which is much stronger than last October’s 14.2 million-unit pace. It’s also slightly ahead of the selling pace in September 2013.

 

3/ Wards: October Sales Forecast Reflects Modest Impact from Government Shutdown
 

U.S. automakers should sell 1.22 million light vehicles in October, according to a new WardsAuto forecast. The effect of a federal government shutdown in the middle of the month likely was offset to a large degree by increased fleet sales, resulting in projected daily deliveries of 45,137 units over 27 selling days. That would be a 7.9% improvement on year-ago (26 days) but an 8.4% decline from September (23 days).

 

4/ Kelley Blue Book: October New-Car Sales Expected To Jump 12 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book
 

In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,220,000 units, up 11.7 percent from October 2012 and up 7.4 percent from September 2013.
 
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2013 is estimated to be 15.4 million, up from 14.3 million in October 2012 and up from 15.2 million in September 2013.
 
“The government shutdown didn’t impact consumers growing appetite for buying new vehicles,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “The expectations were that car buyers would wait on the sidelines, but because of pent-up demand and credit availability, car sales are expected to increase 7 percent from last month.”

 
My view
 
According to the specialists, new auto sales could rebound in September. It looks the government shutdown impacted sales early in the month particularly on the east coast but sales have recovered at the end of the month.

Analysts Expect August Vehicle Sales to Reach Almost the Same Level as in July

Automakers will release August vehicle sales next Wednesday (September 4th) and currently, analysts estimate August sales to reach almost the same level as in July (15.73 million seasonally adjusted and annualized).

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Retail Market Keeps Auto Industry at Full Speed in August, Forecasts Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,455,911 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million. The projected sales will be a 10.9 percent increase from July 2013, and a 13.3 percent increase from August 2012.
 
“Car buyers are continuing their steady march into car dealerships and they’ll keep marching right through Labor Day weekend with attractive deals and promotions luring them in,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs. “While retail sales are strong in August, automakers are further reducing their dependence on fleet sales. This month’s fleet percentage of total sales looks to be the lowest since at least 2007, and the result will be stronger resale values for customers buying new cars and healthier bottom lines for automakers.”

 

2/ TrueCar: August 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up 14.4 Percent According to TrueCar; August 2013 SAAR at 15.75M, Highest August SAAR since 2007

 

For August 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,464,214 units, up 14.4 percent from August 2012 and up 11.8% percent from July 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).
 
The August 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.75 million new car sales, down less than one percent from July 2013 and up nine percent over August 2012.
 
“New vehicle sales defied their typical strong correlation with Wall Street in August and continued to post a healthy increase despite the lackluster performance in financial markets,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com. “Small SUVs became the fastest growing segment this month, with this very functional and affordable vehicle category now making up 15.5% of all sales, up from 13.5% from a year ago.”

 

3/ JD Power: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: August New-Vehicle Sales Reach Highest Level in Seven Years
 

With consistency in the fleet environment, total light-vehicle sales in August 2013 are also expected to increase by 12 percent from August 2012 to 1,495,400. Fleet sales are expected to account for 15 percent of total sales, with volume of 225,000 units.
 
PIN and LMC data show total sales reaching a 16 million unit SAAR in August, which is the highest since November 2007, with actual unit sales the highest since May 2007.
 
New-vehicle sales continue the hot streak that has been trending throughout the summer selling season, with no evidence of the pace slowing, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by the Power Information Network(R) (PIN) from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.
 
“The industry as a whole continues to experience a robust improvement in demand, and our forecast for August is looking to be the best month for retail sales that we’ve seen in the past seven years,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. “Moreover, this strong selling environment is occurring when consumers are spending more on new vehicles than any month on record, which is a further indication of the underlying strength of the sector.”

 

4/ Wards: Daily Sales Stay Steady in August Sales Forecast
 

The U.S. light-vehicle daily sales rate in August should remain nearly flat with July’s DSR, but with three extra selling days monthly sales should rise to nearly 1.47 million units, a new WardsAuto forecast predicts
 
The resulting 15.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate would match the July SAAR but fall short of June’s 67-month high of 15.8 million units.
 
Market conditions are relatively unchanged from July, with robust consumer demand capped by tight inventories and overall sales dampened somewhat by below-trend fleet orders.
 

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: Crossovers, Pickup Trucks Lift August Sales Nearly 14 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book
 

New-vehicle sales are expected improve 13.6 percent in August 2013 to a total of 1.46 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information.
 
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for August 2013 is estimated to be 15.6 million, up from 14.5 million in August 2012 and down from 15.8 million in July 2013.
 
“Most automakers are seeing double-digit sales increases compared to last year as retail sales remain a bright spot, even with more new models entering the market,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Subaru continues to shine, estimated to be up 30 percent this month even with capacity constraints, and Honda once again has one of the strongest year-over-year growths. On the other hand, Ford could have been up double digits, but has been hampered with production issues from both the Escape and Fusion.”

July Auto Sales Should Be Slightly Below June’s Level

Automakers will release July vehicle sales next Wednesday (August 2) and currently, analysts estimate July sales to be slightly below previous month level (15.89 million seasonally adjusted and annualized).

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/Edmunds: Retail Market Drives Strongest July Car Sales Since 2006, Says Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,328,397 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in July for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.8 million. The projected sales will be a 5.3 percent decrease from June 2013, but a 15.2 percent increase from July 2012. Edmunds.com anticipates that this month will be the biggest July performance since 2006 when automakers sold 1,489,359 vehicles.
 
“Overall sales are undoubtedly strong, but what makes July truly impressive is that fleet sales are so low,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “That means retail sales are stepping up as the driving force for the auto industry. When people jump back into the market, it’s great news not just for the automotive sector, but for the entire U.S. economy.”

 

2/TrueCar: July 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up 15.3 Percent According to TrueCar; July 2013 SAAR at 15.8M, Highest July SAAR since 2006

 

For July 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,326,035 units, up 15.3 percent from July 2012 and down 5.1% percent from June 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).
 
The July 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.8 million new car sales, up from 15.9 million in June 2013 and up from 14.1 million in July 2012.
 
“Value conscious buyers are devouring the compact segment inventories while the recovering housing sector is fueling the small business purchases of large trucks,” said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com.
 
“July delivered the highest year-over-year increase so far in 2013,” said Toprak. “Consumer demand for new vehicles remained healthy, with small cars/SUVs and large trucks outperforming the industry sales rate.
 

 

3/ JD Power: July New-Vehicle Retail Sales — Let the Good Times Roll
 

Total light-vehicle sales in July 2013 are expected to grow to 1,336,700, an 11 percent increase from July 2012. Fleet sales, which typically average between 15 and 16 percent of total sales in July, are expected to fall within the lower end of the average, with volume projected at 209,600 units.
 
“The overall trend in vehicle demand has outshined economic growth, and looking forward, the improving economic fundamentals should hold demand at the current level, if not accelerate it over the next several months,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. “With a strong tailwind, it is not unreasonable to think about a 16-million-unit level of demand in 2013.”

 

4/ Wards: Fleet Orders, Low Stocks Temper July U.S. Sales Forecast
 

Diminished inventories and a decline in fleet orders likely will keep U.S. auto makers from equaling last month’s 67-month-high light-vehicle seasonally adjusted annual sales rate, according to a new WardsAuto forecast.
 
The data report calls for 1.31 million LV deliveries in July, equivalent to a 52,401-unit daily selling rate over 25 selling days. That’s a 9.4% improvement on year-ago (24 days), but a 2.6% decline from June’s DSR (26 days).
 
The resulting 15.6 million SAAR also would fall shy of June’s 15.9 million.

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: Pickup Trucks, Compact Cars And Crossovers Drive July New-Car Sales Up 16 Percent
 

In July 2013, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to be 1,340,000 units, up 16.1 percent from July 2012 and down 4.4 percent from June 2013.
 
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for July 2013 is estimated to be 15.8 million, up from 14.0 million in July 2012 and down from 15.9 million in June 2013.
 
“As new-car demand continues to improve with leases accounting for nearly 25 percent of all new-car sales, along with continued solid truck sales, we’ve improved our forecast for 2013 to 15.6 million units,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “Consumer confidence has a played a key role in the ongoing recovery and currently is at the highest levels seen since January 2008. With modest improvements in unemployment and housing expected to continue through the rest of the year, confidence likely will follow suit, driving new-car demand along with it.”