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Mario Draghi

Spanish Q2 GDP Supports the Scenario of an Eurozone Recovery

The Spanish economy is finally about to return to growth, with official estimates showing that GDP fell by only 0.1% in Q2 2013 – the slowest rate of decline in almost two years. These data were in line with my central estimate and supports the scenario of an Eurozone recovery in Q3 (two positive quarters).

 

I’m now waiting for French and German figures but if they are in line with national central banks’ estimates, Eurozone GDP could reach at least 0.1% in Q2.

 

By taking into account the weight of each economy in the euro area (Germany: 27%; France: 21% and Spain: 12%), we can adjust our forecasts:

 

 

Growth Forecasts
Scenario Pessimistic Central Optimistic
Germany 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%
France 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Spain (1st publication) -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Others -0.2% -0.1% 0.0%

 

 

 

Growth Contributions
Scenario Pessimistic Central Optimistic
Germany 0.081% 0.108% 0.135%
France 0.021% 0.042% 0.063%
Spain (1st publication) -0.012% -0.012% -0.012%
Others -0.080% -0.040% 0.000%
Total 0.010% 0.098% 0.0186%
Total (rounded) 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%


 

The publication does not change the final results (rounded) of each scenario but reduces the uncertainty concerning a potential deviation from my central estimate. As a consequence, tomorrow, Mario Draghi should underline that even if uncertainty remains, economic prospects are improving.

ECB Could Introduce Minutes Like FED and BOE

From Reuters:

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) could soon publish the minutes of its Governing Council meetings, which until now have been kept secret, two of the central bank’s executive board members said, according to a German newspaper.
 
ECB President Mario Draghi gives a press conference after decisions on interest rates are made but the euro zone’s central bank could soon follow the example of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in publishing minutes from the meetings, two ECB policymakers said in an interview with Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
 
“The minutes should include who voted for what and why,” ECB policymaker Joerg Asmussen was quoted as saying in an advance copy of an article to appear in Sueddeutsche Zeitung on Monday.
 
Fellow ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told the newspaper transparency was “important for the effectiveness of monetary policy and for trust in the central bank,” adding that society called for this transparency and the ECB was the only big central bank in the world that still kept its minutes secret.
 
The German newspaper said publishing the minutes would be controversial because it could result in lobby groups and politicians putting more pressure on individual policymakers.
 
According to the newspaper, Asmussen and Coeure called for more transparency when the ECB takes over the role of supervisor for the euro zone’s 130 biggest banks.