Experts Expect US Vehicle Sales to Rise Significantly in November

Automakers will release November vehicle sales next Tuesday (December 3rd) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to rebound sharply from October.

 

Here are some forecasts from several specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: November Auto Sales Set the Tone for Final Stretch of 2013, Forecasts Edmunds.com

 

Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,196,663 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.7 million. The projected sales will be a 0.7 percent decrease from October 2013, but a 4.7 percent increase from November 2012.
 
“Any economic uncertainty that car shoppers might have felt in October seems to be a distant memory by now,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Car buyers are already taking advantage of advertised holiday deals, and as we plow deeper into the holiday season, the table is set for 2013 to finish on a very strong note.”

 

2/ JD Power-LMC Automotive: Consumer Demand for New Vehicles Picks Up in November
 

In November, U.S. new-vehicle sales are likely to reach 1.2 million units–up 3% from November 2012–after adjustment for one more selling day this year vs. the same month a year ago,* based on an auto sales forecast update from J.D. Power and strategic partner LMC Automotive.
 
The average sales pace in November is expected to translate to a 16.1 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, which would be nearly 700,000 units stronger than the 15.4 million-unit SAAR in November 2012. It would also outpace the 15.2 million-unit SAAR in October, 2013.

 

3/ Wards: Forecast Calls for Post-Shutdown Bounce
 

U.S. automakers should sell 1.21 million light vehicles in November, according to a new WardsAuto forecast. The forecast looks for strong retail sales in the beginning of the month, accelerating in the final weeks of November, more than offsetting a downturn in fleet deliveries. The forecast sales volume (over 26 days) would represent a 2% rise in daily sales over same-month year-ago (25 days) and equate to a 15.9 million-unit SAAR.

 

4/ Kelley Blue Book: US: Kelly Blue Book sees Black Friday boosting November sales up 3.6%
 

New vehicle sales in the United States are expected to rise 3.6% year on year in November to nearly 1.19m units, according to Kelley Blue Book (KBB).
 
The car data provider said: “Fears of a vehicle sale hangover following the government shutdown in October turned out to be largely overblown as consumers showed no hesitation heading out to the dealership in November.”
 
KBB has pegged November 2013 SAAR at 15.6m, up from 15.3m in November 2012 and up from 15.2m in October 2013.

 

Moreover, according to my friend, Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist & Strategist at Market Securities and also the best forecaster of US statistics, total vehicle sales should rise 5% to 15.90M (SAAR).