Specialists Expect US Vehicle Sales to Rebound in October

Automakers will release October vehicle sales next Friday (November 1st) and currently, analysts estimate sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to rebound from September.


Here are some forecasts from specialists:


1/ Edmunds: October Auto Sales Keep Pace Despite Threat from Government Shutdown, Says Edmunds.com


Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.
“It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry’s momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington.”


2/ JD Power-LMC Automotive: Government Shutdown Curbs New-Vehicle Sales on East Coastg

Although the 16-day partial U.S. government shutdown curtailed new-vehicle sales in the first half of October, demand picked up during the third week, according to a monthly auto sales forecast update from J.D. Power and partner LMC Automotive. Total new-vehicle sales in October 2013 are expected to increase 8% from October 2012, when selling-day adjusted.
October sales are projected to reach nearly 1.22 million units, up from 1.09 million unit sales in the same month of 2012. That’s equal to a 15.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual selling rate, or SAAR, which is much stronger than last October’s 14.2 million-unit pace. It’s also slightly ahead of the selling pace in September 2013.


3/ Wards: October Sales Forecast Reflects Modest Impact from Government Shutdown

U.S. automakers should sell 1.22 million light vehicles in October, according to a new WardsAuto forecast. The effect of a federal government shutdown in the middle of the month likely was offset to a large degree by increased fleet sales, resulting in projected daily deliveries of 45,137 units over 27 selling days. That would be a 7.9% improvement on year-ago (26 days) but an 8.4% decline from September (23 days).


4/ Kelley Blue Book: October New-Car Sales Expected To Jump 12 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book

In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,220,000 units, up 11.7 percent from October 2012 and up 7.4 percent from September 2013.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2013 is estimated to be 15.4 million, up from 14.3 million in October 2012 and up from 15.2 million in September 2013.
“The government shutdown didn’t impact consumers growing appetite for buying new vehicles,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “The expectations were that car buyers would wait on the sidelines, but because of pent-up demand and credit availability, car sales are expected to increase 7 percent from last month.”

My view
According to the specialists, new auto sales could rebound in September. It looks the government shutdown impacted sales early in the month particularly on the east coast but sales have recovered at the end of the month.