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Popular Party regained the lead in June Poll

June’s Metroscopia poll for El País (the first poll following the local and regional elections), published on Sunday, shows that Popular Party (PP) regained the lead for the first time in 10 months and got 24.5% of support, up from 20.8% in April. However, it remains below the result recorded the in local elections (27.1%).

 

In the meantime, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)’s estimated support reached 23.0% up from 21.9% in April following a real result of 25.0% on May 24.

 

Separately, the two loosers were Podemos and especially Ciudadanos. The support for the latter fell from 19.4% in April to 13.5% in June compared to a real result of 6.6% in May. Concerning Podemos, its estimated support declined slightly from 22.1% to 21.5% but remains difficult to compare to the real result. The fact is that the party used associated with several local brands to take part in elections.

 

February Metroscopia Poll Confirms Podemos Lead

February’s Metroscopia poll for El País, published on Sunday, showed that leftist upstart Podemos keep the lead to win Spain’s next general election for the third time in four months, and the second month in a row.

 

Podemos maintains Spain’s first political force with 27.7% of the estimated vote, but the vote is down by five tenths. Separately, Mariano Rajoy’s governing Popular Party increases its share slightly to 20.9%, from 19.2% in January and recover to second place while the PSOE, victim of internal fighting falls to third place with 18.3%. Finally, at the fourth place, Citizens’ party (Ciudadanos), led by Albert Rivera, has seen support increase from 8.1% to 12.2%.

 
The fragmentation has led to talk of pacts or a coalition, although there has been no coalition government since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.
 

 
***Note: Spain has a general election due by the end of the year and a regional and municipal election expected in May.

And The Losers Are… “The Republicans”

All the polls published since almost one week show that the Republican Party has been badly damaged by the government shutdown and debt limit standoff so that the House of Representatives is increasingly vulnerable to a Democratic takeover in 2014.

 

***On October 7, the Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that the disapproval of congressional Republicans’ budget has shot up to 70 percent, with 51 percent disapproving “strongly”:

 

Disapproval of congressional Republicans’ budget wrangling after a weeklong shutdown has shot up to 70 percent, with 51 percent disapproving “strongly,” according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
 
At the same time, President Obama’s approval rating has ticked up due to improved marks among moderate Democrats and independents. No group, however, earns positive marks for their handling of budget negotiations overall.

 

***On October 9, according to the Gallup Survey, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992:

 

With the Republican-controlled House of Representatives engaged in a tense, government-shuttering budgetary standoff against a Democratic president and Senate, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, down from 38% in September. This is the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992.
 
More than six in 10 Americans (62%) now view the GOP unfavorably, a record high. By comparison, nearly half of Americans (49%) view the Democratic Party unfavorably. Roughly one in four Americans see both parties unfavorably.

 

***On October 10, the NBC/WSJ poll demonstrated that Shutdown debate strongly damaged the Republican party:

 

By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96.
 
Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll.

 

***On October 11, poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, found that voters blame the GOP more than Democrats for the shutdown:
 

By a 16-point margin, 43 to 27 percent, voters blame the Republican in Congress, rather than President Obama and the Democrats, for the government shutdown.
 
The shutdown had left an already damaged GOP brand in tatters and the party’s electoral prospects wounded. The party now has a 2:1 unfavorable to favorable rating, 26 percent favorable vs. 52 percent unfavorable (for a net -26 rating). Among independents their rating is -35. Democrats don’t fare great either, but with a net -5 rating (39 percent favorable vs. 44 percent unfavorable), they do much better. Perhaps most important, on the generic ballot, Democrats now lead by double digits, 46 to 36 percent.

 
In this context, I believe that the Republicans should quickly accept the last proposal of Senate Majority Leader Reid that would involve raising the debt ceiling into 2014, opening the Govt into December and agreeing to open framework for budget negotiations.