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And The Losers Are… “The Republicans”

All the polls published since almost one week show that the Republican Party has been badly damaged by the government shutdown and debt limit standoff so that the House of Representatives is increasingly vulnerable to a Democratic takeover in 2014.


***On October 7, the Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that the disapproval of congressional Republicans’ budget has shot up to 70 percent, with 51 percent disapproving “strongly”:


Disapproval of congressional Republicans’ budget wrangling after a weeklong shutdown has shot up to 70 percent, with 51 percent disapproving “strongly,” according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
At the same time, President Obama’s approval rating has ticked up due to improved marks among moderate Democrats and independents. No group, however, earns positive marks for their handling of budget negotiations overall.


***On October 9, according to the Gallup Survey, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992:


With the Republican-controlled House of Representatives engaged in a tense, government-shuttering budgetary standoff against a Democratic president and Senate, the Republican Party is now viewed favorably by 28% of Americans, down from 38% in September. This is the lowest favorable rating measured for either party since Gallup began asking this question in 1992.
More than six in 10 Americans (62%) now view the GOP unfavorably, a record high. By comparison, nearly half of Americans (49%) view the Democratic Party unfavorably. Roughly one in four Americans see both parties unfavorably.


***On October 10, the NBC/WSJ poll demonstrated that Shutdown debate strongly damaged the Republican party:


By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96.
Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll.


***On October 11, poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, found that voters blame the GOP more than Democrats for the shutdown:

By a 16-point margin, 43 to 27 percent, voters blame the Republican in Congress, rather than President Obama and the Democrats, for the government shutdown.
The shutdown had left an already damaged GOP brand in tatters and the party’s electoral prospects wounded. The party now has a 2:1 unfavorable to favorable rating, 26 percent favorable vs. 52 percent unfavorable (for a net -26 rating). Among independents their rating is -35. Democrats don’t fare great either, but with a net -5 rating (39 percent favorable vs. 44 percent unfavorable), they do much better. Perhaps most important, on the generic ballot, Democrats now lead by double digits, 46 to 36 percent.

In this context, I believe that the Republicans should quickly accept the last proposal of Senate Majority Leader Reid that would involve raising the debt ceiling into 2014, opening the Govt into December and agreeing to open framework for budget negotiations.

Delaying ObamaCare Insurance Mandate Should Boost Small Businesses Hiring

The Obama administration announced Tuesday that it is delaying a major provision in the health care overhaul, putting off until 2015 a requirement that many employers offer health insurance. The mandate was originally set to kick in for 2014, but will now start in 2015.


The law requires companies that employ 50 or more workers to offer coverage or face fines. The Treasury Department and the White House said that, based on complaints by employers that the system for reporting the coverage was too onerous, they would simplify that system and give employers an additional year to comply.


The decision effectively means that penalties that would have been assessed against non-compliant businesses will be delayed until 2015.


Note this announcement intervened while few days ago, a new study by Newtek Business Services showed that independent business owners were still confused over the coming healthcare law regulations.


More from Newtek Business Services:


Based on a poll of over 1,000 respondents, one of the key findings from the June SB Authority Market Sentiment Survey is that 52% of business owners do not know how to prepare for the upcoming healthcare reform changes. Of the remaining, 24% plan to reduce benefits to employees, 13% plan to rebid their policy and 11% plan to reduce business expenses.


Moreover, Remind that on June 19, CNBC underlined that:


Small business owners’ fear of the effect of the new health-care reform law on their bottom line is prompting many to hold off on hiring and even to shed jobs in some cases.
Forty-one percent of the businesses surveyed have frozen hiring because of the health-care law known as Obamacare.


Therefore, in the short term, delaying ObamaCare will give small businesses more time to be in conformity with the law and to manage its impact. At least, they could stop firing people which will be a boost for NFP to the extent that small businesses add the majority of jobs, according to ADP:


Businesses added 188,000 jobs in June, according to the ADP National Employment Report, up from 134,000 jobs added in May.
The biggest gains were among small businesses, which added 84,000 jobs in June. Medium-sized firms added 55,000 positions, while large companies — those with more than 500 employees — added 49,000 jobs.