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Popular Party Kept the Lead in July Poll while Podemos Remained in Third Position

July’s Metroscopia poll for El País, published on Sunday, shows that Popular Party (PP) kept the lead (two consecutive month) with 23.0% of support but down from 24.5% in June.


In the meantime, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)’s estimated support reached 22.5%, down from 23.0% in June, but still above Podemos’ score.


As a matter of fact, the left wing party remained in third position with 21.5% estimated votes for the second consecutive time while in the meantime, Ciudadanos’ support rose from 13.5% to 15.0%.


In the coming months, traditional parties seem in better place to benefit from the ongoing recovery in Spain while Podemos is likely to be hit by Greek developments as Syriza’ decisions put the country into deeper recession.



Popular Party regained the lead in June Poll

June’s Metroscopia poll for El País (the first poll following the local and regional elections), published on Sunday, shows that Popular Party (PP) regained the lead for the first time in 10 months and got 24.5% of support, up from 20.8% in April. However, it remains below the result recorded the in local elections (27.1%).


In the meantime, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)’s estimated support reached 23.0% up from 21.9% in April following a real result of 25.0% on May 24.


Separately, the two loosers were Podemos and especially Ciudadanos. The support for the latter fell from 19.4% in April to 13.5% in June compared to a real result of 6.6% in May. Concerning Podemos, its estimated support declined slightly from 22.1% to 21.5% but remains difficult to compare to the real result. The fact is that the party used associated with several local brands to take part in elections.


February Metroscopia Poll Confirms Podemos Lead

February’s Metroscopia poll for El País, published on Sunday, showed that leftist upstart Podemos keep the lead to win Spain’s next general election for the third time in four months, and the second month in a row.


Podemos maintains Spain’s first political force with 27.7% of the estimated vote, but the vote is down by five tenths. Separately, Mariano Rajoy’s governing Popular Party increases its share slightly to 20.9%, from 19.2% in January and recover to second place while the PSOE, victim of internal fighting falls to third place with 18.3%. Finally, at the fourth place, Citizens’ party (Ciudadanos), led by Albert Rivera, has seen support increase from 8.1% to 12.2%.

The fragmentation has led to talk of pacts or a coalition, although there has been no coalition government since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

***Note: Spain has a general election due by the end of the year and a regional and municipal election expected in May.