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Podemos Keeps The Lead But Lost Support in March Poll

March’s Metroscopia poll for El País, published on Sunday, showed that leftist upstart Podemos keeps the lead to win Spain’s next general election for the fourth time in five months, and the third month in a row. However, it fell from 27.7% of the estimated vote in February to 22.5% this month.


Separately, the Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) rebounded slightly from February’s low of 18.3%, to 20.2% in March while Mariano Rajoy’s governing Popular Party returned to the third place with 18.6% of support, down from 20.9% in February.


Finally, Ciudadanos polled fourth but gained traction from 8.1% in January to 18.4% in March.


Spanish Officials See Stabilization in Q2 2013

1/ This morning, Spain’s Finance Minister Luis de Guindos made positive comments regarding economic situation and expected GDP to be closer to zero in Q2:


More from the Wall Street Journal:


Spain’s Finance Minister Luis de Guindos said Tuesday that the rate of contraction of gross domestic product will be close to zero in the second quarter, signalling that an end to the economic recession is in sight.
According to Spanish newswire EFE, Mr. De Guindos said at a conference in the city of Santander that we’re at an inflexion point which indicates that we can leave the recession behind us.


2/ Just after, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that there are positive signs regarding Spanish economy so that the worst is over. As an exemple, Rajoy underlined that exports of goods rose 8% from a year ago during first four months of the year


More from CincoDias:


“Creo que lo peor ha pasado, por eso vamos a mantener la misma línea de política económica y lo creo así porque aunque los resultados lleven su tiempo, algo que dijimos, estas políticas están dando sus frutos y hay indicadores positivos que son el prólogo o la primera página de la recuperación económica”
“En este punto, ha señalado que las exportaciones de mercancías estaban creciendo un 17% en abril en términos reales y que su crecimiento medio en los primeros cuatro meses del año ha sido del 8%.”

 My view


- Spanish economy has showed positive signs since March.
- It confirms my feeling that Eurozone growth could stabilize in Q2 2013 before recovering in H2 2013.
- Indeed, it seems that German growth (27% of EU economy) should accelerate in Q2 around 0.3% QoQ while French (20% of EU economy) and Spanish (12% of EU economy) growth could stabilize.

Spanish Jobless Claims Dropped in May thanks to Summer Jobs Hiring

The number of registered job seekers in May fell by almost 100 K, confirming Rajoy’s prediction and lending support to the government’s forecast of an economic recovery by the end of the year.


Dow Jones Newswires noted:


“Spain’s labor ministry said Tuesday the number of people filing for jobless benefits fell 2% to 4.89 million in May from April, the lowest mark since December last year. The number of job seekers fell by 98,265, the largest drop in the month of May ever, the ministry added. The decline was almost double the average fall seen in the month of May, traditionally a good one for employment because of strong hiring ahead of the busy summer holiday season.”