Spanish Q2 GDP Supports the Scenario of an Eurozone Recovery

The Spanish economy is finally about to return to growth, with official estimates showing that GDP fell by only 0.1% in Q2 2013 – the slowest rate of decline in almost two years. These data were in line with my central estimate and supports the scenario of an Eurozone recovery in Q3 (two positive quarters).

 

I’m now waiting for French and German figures but if they are in line with national central banks’ estimates, Eurozone GDP could reach at least 0.1% in Q2.

 

By taking into account the weight of each economy in the euro area (Germany: 27%; France: 21% and Spain: 12%), we can adjust our forecasts:

 

 

Growth Forecasts
Scenario Pessimistic Central Optimistic
Germany 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%
France 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Spain (1st publication) -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Others -0.2% -0.1% 0.0%

 

 

 

Growth Contributions
Scenario Pessimistic Central Optimistic
Germany 0.081% 0.108% 0.135%
France 0.021% 0.042% 0.063%
Spain (1st publication) -0.012% -0.012% -0.012%
Others -0.080% -0.040% 0.000%
Total 0.010% 0.098% 0.0186%
Total (rounded) 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%


 

The publication does not change the final results (rounded) of each scenario but reduces the uncertainty concerning a potential deviation from my central estimate. As a consequence, tomorrow, Mario Draghi should underline that even if uncertainty remains, economic prospects are improving.