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The ECB QE will be between €600B and €1.1T – Bloomberg, WSJ, FT

Several articles coming from Bloomberg, WSJ and FT unveiled details concerning the ECB QE announcement:


1/ According to the WSJ, the bond purchases would reach €50 billion per month that would last for a minimum of one year, which implies a total of €600B (lower bound):


A proposal from the European Central Bank’s Frankfurt-based executive board calls for bond purchases of roughly €50 billion ($58 billion) per month that would last for a minimum of one year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Still, the executive board’s proposal indicates that the ECB could move more aggressively than financial markets have expected. Forecasts among analysts have recently centered on a figure of around €500 billion or higher for a quantitative-easing program, but the executive board’s proposal suggests that bond purchases could amount to at least €600 billion.


2/ According to Bloomberg, ECB proposal circulated to Governing Council foresees asset purchases of €50 billion a month through the end of 2016. Purchases would not start before March which means that the higher bound would be €1.1 trillion:


The ECB president and his Executive Board recommended asset purchases of 50 billion euros a month until December 2016, according to two euro-area central-bank officials.
Purchases of sovereign debt or other assets in addition to the ECB’s existing covered-bond and asset-backed securities programs wouldn’t start before March 1, one of the people said. It hasn’t yet been decided if the target of 50 billion euros a month would include the existing programs, or how much of it would be sovereign debt.


3/ Finally, the FT confirmed the first headlines noting that the ECB is mulling buying around €50 billion-worth of government bonds a month for between one and two years as part of its quantitative easing programme set to be unveiled on Thursday.

The European Central Bank is mulling buying around €50bn-worth of government bonds a month for between one and two years as part of its quantitative easing programme set to be unveiled on Thursday.
The proposal implies the ECB will buy at least €600bn-worth of government bonds, and possibly as much as double that if it continues buying for two years.

Chinese National Day Holidays: Press Reports Suggest that Tourism Activity and Domestic Consumption Were Strong

First press reports concerning China National Day Holidays suggest that tourism activity and domestic consumption were strong.


More from the FT:


With China’s highways snarled by traffic, thousands of tourists stranded at one of the country’s beloved national parks and millions more crushing into its most popular attractions, there is little question that the Chinese nation is once again on holiday.
Early government estimates are that this National Day holiday week, which began on Tuesday, will be a record for the country in terms of domestic visitor numbers and tourism revenue, with both up about 20 per cent compared with the same period 12 months earlier.
Overall, there were 8.4m tourists at China’s 125 most-visited tourist sites over the first two days of the National Day holiday week, up 19 per cent from a year earlier, according to the national tourism administration. Revenue at these sites was up 27 per cent year on year, reaching Rmb437m ($71.4m).


More from the WSJ:


Scenic spots around China are reportedly mobbed with visitors during a long national holiday this week, which has many ordinary Chinese frustrated. But this is actually an encouraging sign for the country’s economy.
The total number of people arriving at major tourist sites in China over the first two days of the “National Day” holiday is up 18.8% from last year.
Other data tell a similar story. On Oct. 1, the first day of the holiday, Chinese railroads carried 10.3 million passengers. That’s up 13.2% from a year earlier, according to government figures.

My view
- Strong tourism numbers pointed to robust consumer confidence and seasonal hiring.
- Consumption should remain strong in October confirming the steady increase of retail sales since the beginning of the year.