The USD Will Pursue its Rally as Investors Underestimate the Pace with which the Fed Will Tighten its Policy
According to the Bloomberg, on January 30, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said investors are wrong to expect the Fed to postpone an interest-rate increase beyond midyear, with the U.S. economy leading global growth and unemployment dropping and noted that:
The market has a more dovish view of what the Fed is going to do than the Fed itself…
… Markets should take it at face value from the Fed’s rate projections
In this context, I decided to take a look at both Fed fund futures and latest FOMC median forecasts (December) and the fact is that the gap between investor’s expectations and Fed guidance is simply HUGE. As a matter of fact, Fed officials expect the benchmark funds rate rise to 1.125% by the end of 2015 while investors are only betting on 0.410%.
Of course, Fed’s forecasts seem to be too agressive as they imply four rate hikes for 2015 in a context of 1) CPI’s weakness, 2) global slowdown and 3) geopolitical tensions, but a liftoff by midyear remains the base case scenario. Separately, according to Fed funds futures, investors see only a 15% chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate in June.
As a consequence, this situation implies that there is still a huge potential of appreciation concerning the USD especially as:
1) ECB will implement QE next month.
2) SNB has an unofficial corridor of CHF1.05-CHF1.10 against €.
3) BOJ will keep on implementing an accommodative monetary policy.