US Vehicle Sales Should Remain Over 17 Million SAAR in August
Automakers will release August vehicle sales next Tuesday (September 1st) and currently, analysts expect sales (Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rate) to remain above 17 million.
Here are some forecasts from several specialists:
Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping, forecasts that 1,538,958 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.4 million. The projected sales will be a 2.1 percent increase from July 2015, but a 2.8 percent decrease from August 2014.
“Sales momentum in August has been strong despite recent stock market fluctuations,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The fact that we will likely see a year-over-year decline in sales isn’t a troubling sign because last August was a monster month that included Labor Day weekend.”
A new WardsAuto forecast calls for strong U.S. light-vehicle sales in August, extending a streak of light-vehicle SAARs that round to at least 17 million units. The report calls for automakers to sell 1.53 million LVs in the U.S. this month, for a daily sales rate of 58,866 units (over 26 days), a 0.7% improvement over same-month year-ago (27 days).
3/ Kelley Blue Book: New-Car Sales To Drop 4 Percent In August 2015, According To Kelley Blue Book
New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.52 million units in August 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
“While the outlook for August remains bright, we must keep an eye on the financial markets which have declined precipitously in the last few weeks on uncertainty in international markets, namely China,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.
“We remain confident that sales in August will remain robust; however, should the U.S. financial markets continue to falter, we could see demand for new cars soften in the short to medium term. It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the U.S. remains below 6 percent, while the auto finance environment remains as attractive as ever, so we don’t necessarily expect to see the sales pace deviate from its current 17 million-plus SAAR trajectory for 2015 unless the stock market continues its downward trajectory in the weeks and months to come.”
4/ J.D. Power and LMC Automotive: Industry Strength Continues in August, Full-Month Volume Impacted by Calendar
“On a year-over-year basis, August sales are going to appear weak, when in fact it’s really a variance in the numbers created by the calendar,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.“There certainly is no cause for alarm. In fact, the daily selling rate month-to-date in August is trending 8 percent higher than the same period a year ago, although we do anticipate the absence of the holiday in August sales will diminish that rate by the end of the month.
“Our expectation is that with Labor Day falling in September, sales that would have occurred this month are being pushed into next month. If that happens, September will move sales back to the strong trend line we’ve been seeing throughout the year.”