US Total Vehicle Sales Should Be at or Above 15 million SAAR in May

Automakers will release May vehicle sales next Monday (June 3) and currently, analysts estimate May sales to be at or above 15 million (seasonally adjusted and annualized). It will represent an increase compared to April when sales slowed to their lowest monthly pace (14.92 million) since last autumn.

 

Here are some forecasts from specialists:

 

1/ Edmunds: Car Sales Expected to Get Back on Track in May, Says Edmunds.com

 

“Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information, forecasts that 1,420,937 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in May for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.1 million light vehicles. The projected sales will be a 10.6 percent increase from April 2013 and a 6.5 percent increase from May 2012.” … “May sales quickly chased away any of last month’s concerns that the auto recovery is stalling”

 

2/ TrueCar: May 2013 New Car Sles Expected to Be Up Almost Nince Percent Accordiing to TrueCar; May 2013 SAAR at 15.2M, Highest May SAAR since 2007

 

“For May 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,435,495 units, up 8.5 percent from May 2012 and up 12.1 percent from April 2013 (on an unadjusted basis).” … “The May 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.2 million new car sales, up from 14.9 April 2013 and up from 13.9 million in May 2012.”

 

3/ JD Power: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: May New-Vehicle Retail Selling Rate Expected to be 1 Million Units Stronger than a Year Ago

 

“Robust new-vehicle retail sales in May are the driving factor of returning total sales above the 15-million unit selling level for the month, according to a monthly sales forecast developed by J.D. Power & Associates’ Power Information Network”

 

4/ Wards: May Sales Should Return to Trend

 

“Steadily improving economic factors, including rising consumer confidence, should help boost May U.S. light-vehicle deliveries back to the current 6-month sales rate after an April dip in the seasonally adjusted annual rate, a new WardsAuto forecast says.” … “U.S. auto makers are expected to sell 1.43 million cars and light trucks in the month, equivalent to a 55,127-unit daily rate over 26 selling days, a 7.8% improvement from year-ago that also had 26 days.”

 

5/ Kelley Blue Book: New-car Sales To Improve 6 Percent In May With Help From Memorial Day Weekend Sale Events

 

“New-car sales will hit 15.0 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in May, which is an expected 6 percent year-over-year improvement, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information.”

 

This rebound in sales is coherent with some articles which underlined that U.S. automakers accelerated production lines and, in some cases, even canceled the North American industry’s traditional summer factory shutdowns to meet strong demand.
 
As a consequence, in May, we can expect:
 
1/ an increase of industrial production
2/ a rebound of retail sales
3/ some hiring in the auto sector